The 2009-2014 World Outlook for Non-Aerospace-Type Standard NFPA and JIC Linear Tie-Rod Hydraulic Fluid Power Cylinders with 1,500 to 3,000 P.s.i. Excluding Electrohydraulic Cylinders [Paperback]

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WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?

The notion of latent demand is pretty subtle. The phrase latent typically describes something which is dormant, not observable, or otherwise not yet realized. Demand is the notion of your economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists since the industry earnings of your market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is really a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a marketplace is served in a efficient manner. It is usually expressed since the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The "market" is defined in a given level in the value chain. There may be latent demand on the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of upper levels of the value chain being always smaller compared to the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels from the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).

The latent need for non-aerospace-type standard NFPA and JIC linear tie-rod hydraulic fluid power cylinders with 1,500 to 3,000 p.s.i. excluding electrohydraulic cylinders is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand could be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a companies are inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from the amount of factors, like the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior about the portion of firms. In general, however, latent demand is usually greater than actual sales in a very country market.

For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of "unit quantities", only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is rarely made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) rather than adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates. If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way in comparison to recent experience, actually sales may also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On one other hand, latent demand could be typically more than actual sales because there tend to be distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the degree of latent demand.

As mentioned within the introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective from the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products for the market can cease to exist of their present form (i.e., at the brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all sorts of the players could be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there'll be an international latent interest in non-aerospace-type standard NFPA and JIC linear tie-rod hydraulic fluid power cylinders with 1,500 to 3,000 p.s.i. excluding electrohydraulic cylinders at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and also the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.

THE METHODOLOGY

In order to estimate the latent interest in non-aerospace-type standard NFPA and JIC linear tie-rod hydraulic fluid power cylinders with 1,500 to 3,000 p.s.i. excluding electrohydraulic cylinders on the worldwide basis, I made use of a multi-stage approach. Before using the approach, one needs a basic theory from where such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely about the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there exists an assumption governing the shape and form of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an marketplace is efficient), at any level from the value chain, happens if an equilibrium is realized. For firms to serve a market, they need to perceive a latent demand and become in a position to serve that demand at the minimal return. The one most critical variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other savings at higher levels in the value chain). Other factors that may pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), or modifications in utility for the product in question.

Ignoring, for your moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to use will be the degree of consumption divided from the a higher level income, or perhaps the slope with the line from the origin for the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to get true within the short-run (mostly according to cross-sectional data). The bigger the income, the lower the typical propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope in the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated how the marginal propensity to take was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" inside the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The common propensity to consume is constant.





Is it declining or perhaps it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, inside the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why both the functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter some time horizon, the harder consumption can depend upon wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to use is a great deal more constant. Similarly, inside the long run, households, industries or countries without having income eventually haven't any consumption (wealth is depleted). As the debate surrounding beliefs about how precisely income and consumption are related and interesting, on this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we have been taking into consideration the latent demand for non-aerospace-type standard NFPA and JIC linear tie-rod hydraulic fluid power cylinders with 1,500 to 3,000 p.s.i. excluding electrohydraulic cylinders across some 230 countries. The smallest have under 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of the countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent need for non-aerospace-type standard NFPA and JIC linear tie-rod hydraulic fluid power cylinders with 1,500 to 3,000 p.s.i. excluding electrohydraulic cylinders. So, latent demand within the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including standing on consumption functions with differing slopes, which could are the reason of variations in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).

Given this overriding philosophy, I am going to now describe the methodology employed to produce the latent demand estimates for non-aerospace-type standard NFPA and JIC linear tie-rod hydraulic fluid power cylinders with 1,500 to 3,000 p.s.i. excluding electrohydraulic cylinders. Since ICON Group has asked me to make use of this methodology to a large variety of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and could be applied to a wide number of categories, not just non-aerospace-type standard NFPA and JIC linear tie-rod hydraulic fluid power cylinders with 1,500 to 3,000 p.s.i. excluding electrohydraulic cylinders.

Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection

Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define "efficiently served". Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, We've found that the optimal approach would be to feel that certain key countries are more inclined to be at or near efficiency than others. These countries are given greater weight than others in the... --This text refers on the Digital edition.






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