The 2009-2014 World Outlook for Non-Aerospace-Type Linear Threaded-And Weld-Fused Combination Hydraulic Fluid Power Cylinders [Paperback]

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WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?

The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The word latent typically refers to something which is dormant, not observable, or otherwise yet realized. Demand could be the notion of your economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly based on economists as the industry earnings of an market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is really a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a companies are served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed because the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The "market" is defined at a given level inside value chain. There could be latent demand on the retail level, with the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and also the raw materials level (the P.I.E. better levels with the value chain being always smaller as opposed to P.I.E. of levels at lower levels from the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).

The latent need for non-aerospace-type linear threaded- and weld-fused combination hydraulic fluid power cylinders just isn't actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or maybe more than actual sales if a companies are inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a amount of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior around the portion of firms. In general, however, latent demand is normally greater than actual sales in a very country market.

For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of "unit quantities", only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used within this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in return rates. If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a very substantial way when compared with recent experience, actually sales also can exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the opposite hand, latent demand might be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the a higher level latent demand.

As mentioned inside introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, every certainly one of the current products or services around the market can cease to exist of their present form (i.e., at the brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all sorts of the gamers might be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will be a global latent need for non-aerospace-type linear threaded- and weld-fused combination hydraulic fluid power cylinders at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and also the actual identity from the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.

THE METHODOLOGY

In order to estimate the latent demand for non-aerospace-type linear threaded- and weld-fused combination hydraulic fluid power cylinders on the worldwide basis, I made use of a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory that such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely around the usage of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there's an assumption governing the shape and kind of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of an country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level in the value chain, happens if an equilibrium is realized. For firms for everyone a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be capable to serve that demand at a minimal return. The only most significant variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that may pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), as well as alterations in utility to the product in question.

Ignoring, for your moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption continues to be a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one facet of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the typical propensity to use would fall. The common propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided through the degree of income, or perhaps the slope with the line from your origin for the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and located it to be true inside the short-run (mostly according to cross-sectional data). The bigger the income, the reduced the common propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" inside the figure below (note the rather flat slope from the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that this marginal propensity to use was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This kind of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The normal propensity to consume is constant.





Is it declining or perhaps it constant? A amount of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, within the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why both the functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the harder consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to use is more constant. Similarly, inside long run, households, industries or countries without any income eventually don't have any consumption (wealth is depleted). Even though the debate surrounding beliefs about how precisely income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a really particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, were taking into consideration the latent need for non-aerospace-type linear threaded- and weld-fused combination hydraulic fluid power cylinders across some 230 countries. The smallest have under 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that every of the counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of the countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for non-aerospace-type linear threaded- and weld-fused combination hydraulic fluid power cylinders. So, latent demand inside long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to own different propensities to consume (including located on consumption functions with differing slopes, which could account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).

Given this overriding philosophy, I'll now describe the methodology accustomed to make the latent demand estimates for non-aerospace-type linear threaded- and weld-fused combination hydraulic fluid power cylinders. Since ICON Group has asked me to use this methodology with a large quantity of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and could be applied to your wide number of categories, not just non-aerospace-type linear threaded- and weld-fused combination hydraulic fluid power cylinders.

Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection

Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define "efficiently served". Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to think that certain key countries are much more likely to get at or near efficiency than others. These countries are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand when compared with other countries for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world's highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for "efficiency". High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and... --This text refers to the Digital edition.






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